Introduction: The Pinnacle of Individual Excellence
The Ballon d’Or, football’s most prestigious individual accolade, once again takes center stage as the 2024-2025 season concludes. This year, the race for the coveted Golden Ball promises to be one of the most intriguing in recent memory, moving beyond the duopoly that defined an era. The criteria for this esteemed award remain consistent: individual performance, the decisive impact a player has on their team’s success, and their overall class and sportsmanship on and off the pitch. As the 69th edition of the awards approaches, set to be presented on Monday, September 22, 2025, at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris, a diverse array of talent has emerged, making the outcome genuinely unpredictable. This report will dissect the candidacies of the top nominees, evaluate their statistical contributions and team triumphs, and assess their chances of etching their name into footballing history.
The Elite Tier: Frontrunners and Their Unassailable Cases
The 2025 Ballon d’Or conversation is dominated by a few standout individuals whose performances have been nothing short of extraordinary, coupled with significant collective silverware.
Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain): The Treble Architect
Ousmane Dembélé stands as the undeniable favorite for the 2025 Ballon d’Or, a testament to a season where his latent potential finally erupted into consistent, world-class performance. His pivotal role in Paris Saint-Germain’s historic domestic and European dominance makes his case exceptionally strong. Dembélé experienced a career resurgence in 2024-25, contributing an astonishing 33 goals and 15 assists across 49 appearances in all competitions. Specifically in Ligue 1, he netted 21 goals and provided 9 assists in 29 matches. His transition into a “marauding false nine” was instrumental in shaping PSG’s “all-conquering outfit”. He also scored 8 goals and added 6 assists in the Champions League.
PSG’s 2024-25 season was one for the history books, securing a comprehensive quadruple of major trophies: the UEFA Champions League, Ligue 1, Coupe de France, and Trophée des Champions. They won their first-ever Champions League title with a resounding 5-0 victory over Inter Milan in the final. Dembélé was a key figure in this triumph. They clinched the Ligue 1 title on Matchday 28, showcasing “clinical consistency and relentless intensity,” finishing with 84 points, 26 wins, and only 2 losses, boasting the best attack and defense. Furthermore, PSG players’ trophy records confirm Coupe de France and Trophée des Champions victories. PSG also reached the FIFA Club World Cup final, ultimately losing to Chelsea, with Dembélé scoring his 35th goal of the season during this tournament. This unprecedented collective success, particularly the Champions League, is a primary driver of Dembélé’s favoritism. The sheer volume of high-level success leaves little room for doubt regarding the strength of his case.
The narrative surrounding Dembélé’s candidacy further strengthens his position. He has overcome “years of injury setbacks and inconsistent form”, with his 2024-25 season being described as the moment “everything came together” and when he developed “into the player he was always meant to be”. This personal journey of resilience and fulfillment of potential aligns well with the award’s consideration of a player’s character and decisive impact. Such a compelling story can resonate deeply with voters, adding a qualitative dimension to his already impressive statistical dominance. Dembélé is the overwhelming favorite, with odds as low as 1/3 from Bet365 and 1.20 from Parimatch. Experts widely concur, citing his “electric form” and “remarkable season”.
Lamine Yamal (FC Barcelona): The Teenage Phenomenon
At just 17 years old, Lamine Yamal has captivated the football world, emerging as a generational talent and a strong contender for the Ballon d’Or, despite his tender age. Yamal “has taken European football by storm”. In La Liga, he registered 9 goals and 13 assists in 35 appearances, playing 2,861 minutes. He was also pivotal in Barcelona’s Champions League semi-final run. His overall contributions include 22 goal contributions (goals + assists) in La Liga. Yamal was “instrumental in Barcelona’s domestic double,” helping them secure both La Liga and the Copa del Rey. He was “decisive in both Clásicos” against Real Madrid, highlighting his impact in crucial matches. Beyond team success, Yamal has already garnered significant individual recognition, winning the Golden Boy award, the Kopa Trophy, and earning a place in the UEFA Team of the Year. He is also a nominee for the Men’s Kopa Trophy 2025.
Yamal’s age is a significant factor in his strong candidacy. The emphasis on his “meteoric rise” and “astonishing maturity” suggests that voters might be swayed by the historical significance of a 17-year-old performing at such an elite level. If he were to win, he would become the youngest Ballon d’Or recipient in history. The comparison to Pelé in 1958 underscores the profound impact of his youthful brilliance. This compelling narrative of a prodigy excelling beyond his years could potentially elevate him above players with slightly better raw statistics, as the story of his season is exceptionally powerful and aligns with the “character” aspect of the award. However, a strategic consideration for his chances is the presence of Raphinha. With both Yamal and Raphinha representing the same club and playing similar roles, there is a risk that votes will be split, potentially weakening both of their campaigns. This distribution of votes could prevent either player from accumulating enough points to challenge Dembélé, who benefits from being the clear standout on his dominant team. Yamal is consistently ranked as the second favorite, with odds around 5/2 from Bet365 and 5.00 from Parimatch. Experts acknowledge his “meteoric rise and astonishing maturity” and that he “will surely end his career with multiple Ballons d’Or”.
Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain): The Midfield Maestro
Vitinha has emerged as a formidable dark horse in the Ballon d’Or race, solidifying his reputation as one of the world’s premier midfielders and a vital cog in PSG’s historic success. Vitinha had a “standout season at Paris Saint-Germain”. In Ligue 1, he recorded 5 goals and 1 assist in 29 appearances. Across all competitions, he contributed 5 goals and 2 assists in 2201 minutes played. He was praised for his “intelligence, control, and leadership,” transforming PSG’s midfield identity. He functioned as the “beating heart” and “conductor” of Luis Enrique’s PSG.
Like Dembélé, Vitinha was “pivotal” in PSG’s historic quadruple, including the Champions League, Ligue 1, Coupe de France, and Trophée des Champions. He also played a key role in their Club World Cup campaign. While Vitinha’s influence is undeniable and he is lauded as a “possessional master” and “adaptable midfielder,” the Ballon d’Or has a historical bias towards attacking players. His relatively lower goal and assist numbers compared to forwards, despite his immense tactical importance, present a significant hurdle. The award’s inherent preference for high goal and assist numbers means he faces an uphill battle against prolific forwards, despite his crucial role in collective success. His “glistening” might not be perceived as much as a goal scorer’s.
Furthermore, one expert notes that Vitinha was “just one part in a dominant three-man midfield,” alongside João Neves and Fabián Ruiz. While this highlights PSG’s overall strength, it could dilute individual recognition for Vitinha compared to a midfielder who single-handedly carries a less star-studded unit. When multiple players in the same unit are performing at an elite level, it can be harder for one to stand out as the singular best, even if their collective impact is immense. This shared excellence within PSG’s midfield might prevent him from accumulating enough individual votes to surpass a player like Dembélé, who is seen as the primary offensive catalyst. Vitinha’s odds have “shortened”, placing him as the third favorite with odds around 14/1 from Bet365 and 11.00 from Parimatch. He is widely considered deserving of a podium finish.
Strong Contenders: Pushing for the Podium
Beyond the top three, several players had exceptional seasons and are considered strong candidates, capable of upsetting the favorites under the right circumstances.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool FC): The Premier League King
Mohamed Salah continued to demonstrate his elite status with another phenomenal season, leading Liverpool to domestic glory. Salah was Liverpool’s “talisman”, leading the Premier League in goals with 29 and ranking second in assists with 18 in 38 appearances. He amassed a total of 47 goal contributions in the league. Salah “steered Liverpool to a league title under challenging conditions”, making them the 2024-25 Premier League champions.
Despite his overwhelming domestic dominance, Liverpool’s “early exit from the Champions League has somewhat dulled the shine on Salah’s campaign, as continental success often weighs heavily in Ballon d’Or voting”. This highlights a critical emphasis in Ballon d’Or voting on European club competition success. A player’s perceived “disappearing act” in Europe’s premier club competition, even if isolated, can significantly damage their chances, regardless of domestic brilliance. This suggests that for a player to truly contend for the Ballon d’Or, deep runs or a victory in the Champions League are almost a prerequisite, even for those who dominate their domestic leagues. Salah is listed with odds of 16/1 from Bet365 and 26.00 from Parimatch. Experts acknowledge his “ridiculously consistent” performance and that he “was the best player in the world’s best league”.
Raphinha (FC Barcelona): The Brazilian Dynamo
Often overshadowed by his younger teammate, Raphinha enjoyed arguably the best season of his career, proving equally decisive for Barcelona’s success. Raphinha registered an impressive 34 goals across all competitions. In La Liga, he scored 18 goals and provided 9 assists in 36 appearances, including a hat-trick. He was “just as pivotal as Yamal in Barcelona’s successful league and cup run”. He also scored 13 goals in the Champions League. Raphinha was a key contributor to Barcelona’s La Liga and Copa del Rey triumphs. He was “decisive in both Clásicos”.
While Raphinha’s statistical output (34 goals) is higher than Yamal’s, experts suggest Yamal had a more “masterful” and “electric” performance. This illustrates the subjective nature of “impact” in Ballon d’Or voting, where qualitative assessment can sometimes outweigh raw numbers. Despite Raphinha’s superior numbers, the perception that Yamal was Barcelona’s “best player” and the question of Raphinha’s “inability to grab the spotlight” could affect his standing. This suggests that the Ballon d’Or is not purely a statistical award; “decisive impact” and “impressive character” can be interpreted qualitatively, favoring players who are perceived as more exciting, influential, or who generate more media buzz, even if their raw numbers are slightly lower than a teammate. Raphinha is listed with odds of 20/1 from Bet365 and 17.00 from Transfermarkt/Parimatch. Experts note his “incredible 2024/25 season” and “world-class attacking production”.
Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): The Galáctico’s Debut
Kylian Mbappé’s highly anticipated first season at Real Madrid delivered impressive individual numbers, but his Ballon d’Or chances are notably hindered by a relative lack of major team silverware. Mbappé’s debut season at Real Madrid saw him score 31 goals and provide 3 assists in 34 La Liga appearances. Across all competitions, he accumulated 44 goals and 4 assists in 59 matches. He also scored 7 goals in 14 Champions League appearances. He won the La Liga Golden Boot. Real Madrid secured the UEFA Super Cup and the FIFA Intercontinental Cup. However, they did not win La Liga (Barcelona did) or the Champions League (PSG did).
Mbappé’s case starkly illustrates that individual brilliance, even with high goal tallies, is insufficient for the Ballon d’Or without significant collective success, particularly in the Champions League. Real Madrid’s wins in the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Intercontinental Cup, while notable, are less weighted than the primary domestic league or the Champions League. Experts explicitly state that his “lack of silverware has hampered his Ballon d’Or chances” and that he “lacked overall team achievements, especially in Europe”. This reinforces the Ballon d’Or’s heavy reliance on major team trophies, especially the Champions League. A player can be statistically prolific, but without the ultimate team accolades, their award prospects are significantly diminished. The “vampiric effect” on other Real Madrid stars also suggests a narrative drawback for his impact on the team’s overall performance. Mbappé is considered an outside bet, with odds of 50/1 from Bet365 and 34.00/41.00 from Transfermarkt/Parimatch.
Cole Palmer (Chelsea): Club World Cup Star
Cole Palmer’s breakout season, capped by a stellar performance in the FIFA Club World Cup, has propelled him into the Ballon d’Or conversation. In the Premier League, Palmer scored 15 goals and provided 8 assists in 37 appearances. His total goal contributions in the league were 23. Palmer was named the Best Player of the Tournament at the FIFA Club World Cup 2025, scoring twice and assisting once in the final, leading Chelsea to a 3-0 victory over PSG. He scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists throughout the tournament. Chelsea also won the Club of the Year award.
Palmer’s significant boost in Ballon d’Or odds and recognition after winning the Club World Cup, despite Chelsea not winning their domestic league or Champions League, indicates that this expanded tournament is gaining more weight in the Ballon d’Or calculus. Traditionally, the Club World Cup might not have carried as much weight as the Champions League for the Ballon d’Or. However, Palmer’s rise specifically due to this tournament suggests its growing importance, especially in its “inaugural expanded” format. This could signal a shift in how voters perceive global club success, potentially broadening the scope of what constitutes a “major” trophy for Ballon d’Or consideration beyond just European and top domestic leagues. Palmer is listed at 20/1 from Bet365 and 21.00 from Transfermarkt/Parimatch. His inclusion is noted as a result of his strong Club World Cup showing.
Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain): The Attacking Full-Back
Achraf Hakimi’s exceptional season as an attacking full-back for PSG has earned him a well-deserved nomination, highlighting his dual threat in both attack and defense. Hakimi had an “utterly sensational” season, contributing 4 goals and 8 assists in Ligue 1. Across all competitions, he amassed 11 goals and 16 assists in 55 appearances. He was noted for his “strong ball-winning numbers” and being a “monster in the possessional build-up”. He also scored crucial goals in the Champions League. Hakimi was integral to PSG’s historic quadruple (Champions League, Ligue 1, Coupe de France, Trophée des Champions). He also played in the Club World Cup.
Despite Hakimi’s incredible attacking output for a full-back (11 goals, 16 assists) and his role in a Champions League-winning team, his odds remain significantly lower than attacking players. This reinforces the historical bias against defenders winning the Ballon d’Or, with Fabio Cannavaro in 2006 being the last. This suggests that even a truly outstanding, attacking-minded defender who wins major trophies faces an almost insurmountable barrier due to the award’s inherent preference for goal-scoring and creative midfielders/forwards. His “world-class attacking production” is still viewed through the lens of his defensive position. Hakimi is listed at 50/1 from Bet365 and 26.00 from Transfermarkt/Parimatch. He is acknowledged as one of PSG’s “stellar” players.
The Dark Horses and Specialists: Other Notable Nominees
The 30-man shortlist for the Ballon d’Or is packed with talent, and while some players may not be frontrunners, their exceptional seasons warrant recognition.
- Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid): Midfield Powerhouse Bellingham had 9 goals and 8 assists in 31 La Liga appearances in 2024-25. Across all competitions, he recorded 9 goals and 11 assists in 31 appearances. He was noted for his “wide range of capabilities”. Real Madrid won the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Intercontinental Cup. His chances were initially considered strong but are hampered by Real Madrid’s lack of major silverware (La Liga, UCL) and his “loose emotional outbursts” leading to red cards. He was a top-three finisher in 2024. Bellingham’s shift to a “more traditional 8/10 hybrid midfield role” with Mbappé’s arrival impacted his goal-scoring output compared to his initial Real Madrid form, potentially diluting his narrative for the award despite his continued excellence.
- Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris Saint-Germain): The Goalkeeping Giant Donnarumma had 4 clean sheets and conceded 25 goals in 24 Ligue 1 matches. Across all competitions, he made 51 saves and kept 4 clean sheets in 24 appearances. His “shot-stopping in the knockout stages proved crucial to PSG’s success”. He was integral to PSG’s Champions League triumph and domestic treble. Despite being “exceptional between the posts” and a strong candidate for the Lev Yashin award, his chances are severely limited by the historical bias against goalkeepers, with Lev Yashin (1963) being the only winner. Donnarumma’s strong case highlights the enduring “goalkeeper curse” of the Ballon d’Or. Even a Champions League-winning goalkeeper who is crucial to his team’s success is highly unlikely to win the main award, underscoring the deep-seated preference for outfield players.
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Paris Saint-Germain/Napoli): Dual-Club Impact Kvaratskhelia contributed 4 goals and 4 assists in 14 Ligue 1 matches for PSG. He also had a significant impact at Napoli earlier in the season, contributing to two different title triumphs. His overall stats for PSG show 8 goal contributions (4 goals, 4 assists) in 32 appearances. He played a “key role for the French side en route to them winning the Champions League” and contributed to Napoli’s Serie A title. His “goal and assist numbers don’t quite match the level of his play,” and his mid-season transfer might complicate his narrative for a single award. Kvaratskhelia’s transfer from Napoli to PSG mid-season presents a unique challenge for Ballon d’Or voting. While he contributed to two different title triumphs (Serie A with Napoli, UCL/Ligue 1 with PSG), the split contribution might make it harder for voters to attribute a singular, dominant narrative to him, as opposed to players who spent the entire season excelling at one club. He is listed at 50/1 from Bet365.
- Désiré Doué (Paris Saint-Germain): Young Talent on the Rise Doué scored 6 goals and provided 6 assists in 31 Ligue 1 appearances for PSG. He was a “standout performer” in Ligue 1. He scored 2 goals and 1 assist in the Champions League final. He was integral to PSG’s Champions League triumph and domestic treble. He also won the Best Young Player award at the FIFA Club World Cup 2025. He is a nominee for the Men’s Kopa Trophy 2025. While a strong young talent, his direct goal contributions are lower than the top attacking contenders. His primary impact is likely recognized through the Kopa Trophy. Doué’s recognition as “Best Young Player” at the Club World Cup and Kopa Trophy nomination suggests a strong future, but for the main Ballon d’Or, the “young player” narrative might place him in a different category than the established elite, even with collective success.
- Harry Kane (Bayern Munich): Bundesliga’s Prolific Scorer Kane was “sensational” in his second season at Bayern, becoming the top goalscorer in the Bundesliga with 26 goals and providing 8 assists in 31 appearances. Across all competitions, he scored 41 goals and provided 11 assists. He fired Bayern Munich to the Bundesliga title. While he finally won a trophy, Bayern’s early Champions League exit (quarter-finals) will likely hinder his chances, similar to Salah’s. Kane’s case mirrors Salah’s, highlighting the Champions League as the ultimate barometer for Ballon d’Or. Despite breaking his trophy duck and being incredibly prolific domestically, failure to reach the UCL final or win it significantly reduces his award prospects.
- Jamal Musiala & Michael Olise (Bayern Munich): Bayern’s Creative Engines Musiala scored 12 goals and 2 assists in 25 Bundesliga matches. Overall, he had 12 goals and 4 assists in 25 appearances. He had his “best goalscoring season”. Olise scored 12 goals and 15 assists in 34 Bundesliga matches. Overall, he had 12 goals and 15 assists in 34 appearances. Both were key players in Bayern’s Bundesliga title win. Similar to Kane, their Champions League quarter-final exit limits their Ballon d’Or potential. Their contributions are more likely to be recognized as part of Bayern’s collective success. The presence of multiple strong attacking players on a successful domestic team (Kane, Musiala, Olise for Bayern) can lead to vote splitting, even if the team wins a major trophy. This dilutes the individual impact for Ballon d’Or consideration.
- Robert Lewandowski (FC Barcelona): Veteran Striker’s Resurgence Lewandowski had a “redemption campaign”, scoring 27 goals and 2 assists in 34 La Liga appearances. Across all competitions, he scored 42 goals in 52 appearances. He was Barcelona’s top scorer in La Liga. He was key to Barcelona’s domestic double (La Liga, Copa del Rey). While he “soared past his goals tally from the season before,” his age (36) and the presence of Yamal and Raphinha might limit his spotlight. It is “tough for a true No. 9 to win the award over those with more creative abilities”. Lewandowski’s strong season highlights the enduring quality of veteran strikers. However, the Ballon d’Or’s criteria often favor players who combine goal-scoring with significant creative output or a compelling narrative of breakthrough, which might place him behind younger, more dynamic contenders.
- Nuno Mendes (Paris Saint-Germain): UEFA Nations League Best Player. Mendes had 1 goal and 3 assists in 24 Ligue 1 matches. He was named the Best Player of the UEFA Nations League Finals 2025. He won the UEFA Nations League with Portugal and was part of PSG’s Champions League-winning squad and domestic treble. While a key player for two successful teams and an international individual award winner, his position as a full-back and lower direct goal contributions make a Ballon d’Or win unlikely. Mendes’s win of the UEFA Nations League Best Player award highlights the growing significance of international tournaments in the Ballon d’Or picture. However, similar to Hakimi, his position as a full-back still presents a significant barrier to winning the overall award, even with both club and international team success.
- Mexican Gold Cup Stars (Luis Ángel Malagón, César Montes, Johan Vásquez, Edson Álvarez): National Team Heroes. These players were instrumental in Mexico winning the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup and the 2025 CONCACAF Nations League. Luis Ángel Malagón, Mexico’s goalkeeper, won the Best Goalkeeper Award at the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, making 8 saves and securing 4 clean sheets. He also won the Golden Glove in the CONCACAF Nations League. César Montes, a defender, co-led Mexico with 3 goals (all from corner kicks), 6 tackles, 9 interceptions, and 4 clean sheet involvements in the Gold Cup. Johan Vásquez, another defender, helped Mexico to 4 clean sheets, 9 tackles, 7 interceptions, and the match-winning assist in the Gold Cup final. He was awarded Genoa’s “Grifone d’Oro” for best player of the season. Edson Álvarez, a midfielder, won the Best Player Award (Golden Ball) at the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, scoring the winning goal in the final. He contributed 2 goals, 1 assist, 14 tackles, and 8 interceptions. While dominant in their confederation, the Ballon d’Or heavily favors European clubs and international competition. Their chances for the main award are minimal due to geographical and competition prestige biases. The strong performances of Mexican players in the CONCACAF Gold Cup and Nations League, resulting in major regional trophies and individual awards, highlight a significant geographical bias in Ballon d’Or voting. Despite being “Best Player” of a continental tournament, players from non-European leagues or less-globally-prominent confederations face an extreme uphill battle for the Ballon d’Or, which is heavily Eurocentric.
Comprehensive Nominee List (Table)
The full list of 30 nominees for the 2025 Men’s Ballon d’Or, as announced by UEFA and Groupe Amaury, represents the pinnacle of global football talent from the 2024-2025 season. This table provides a complete overview of all the players vying for the prestigious award.
Table 1: 2025 Men’s Ballon d’Or Nominees
Ballon d’Or 2025 Odds & Predictions (Table)
Betting odds offer a quantitative snapshot of perceived chances, reflecting public and expert sentiment. They are dynamic but provide a strong indication of who the leading candidates are.
Table 2: 2025 Men’s Ballon d’Or Latest Betting Odds (as of August 2025)
Conclusion: The Verdict and What to Watch For
The 2025 Ballon d’Or race, culminating in the September 22 ceremony, presents a captivating blend of individual brilliance and collective triumph. As this analysis shows, the path to the Golden Ball is rarely straightforward, influenced by a complex interplay of statistics, team achievements, narrative, and historical biases.
The strongest case for the 2025 Ballon d’Or belongs to Ousmane Dembélé. His resurgence, coupled with PSG’s unprecedented quadruple of major trophies, including the Champions League, makes his candidacy exceptionally robust. He checks all the boxes: “Champions League winner, national league dominance, individual resurgence”.
Key challengers include:
- Lamine Yamal who is a compelling alternative. His extraordinary impact at such a young age, coupled with Barcelona’s domestic double, presents a powerful narrative that could sway voters, even if his raw numbers do not match Dembélé’s.
- Vitinha has emerged as a serious, albeit “under-the-radar” contender. His role as the “beating heart” of PSG’s midfield in their historic season is undeniable, but the historical bias against non-attacking players remains a significant hurdle.
- Mohamed Salah delivered another incredible season domestically, but Liverpool’s early Champions League exit “somewhat dulled the shine,” highlighting the paramount importance of European club success.
- Kylian Mbappé, despite impressive personal numbers at Real Madrid, saw his chances “hampered” by a “lack of silverware” in the most prestigious competitions, reinforcing the award’s emphasis on team trophies.
- Cole Palmer‘s rise, particularly his “Best Player” award at the FIFA Club World Cup, indicates the increasing relevance of this global club competition in the Ballon d’Or landscape.
While the Ballon d’Or is inherently subjective, the confluence of individual brilliance and unparalleled collective success places Ousmane Dembélé in the strongest position to claim the 2025 award. His narrative of redemption, combined with PSG’s comprehensive trophy haul, creates a compelling and almost unassailable case. However, the captivating performances of young talents like Lamine Yamal and the consistent excellence of others ensure that the debate will continue until the golden ball is finally presented. The 2025 edition truly promises to be a memorable one.
