The Managerial Merry-Go-Round: A Data-Driven Deep Dive into Europe’s Sack Race
The start of the 2025/26 football season has shown the accelerating trend of managerial instability across Europe. The “hot seat” is a permanent fixture from the first whistle of the new campaign, with a culture of instant gratification and commercial pressures eroding patience. This has made the early-season “sack race” a central narrative, with some leagues proving more ruthless than others.
A review of Europe’s top five leagues—the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, and La Liga—reveals a clear pattern of departures at the beginning of the 2025/26 season. The Premier League and Bundesliga have seen in-season managerial changes, indicating a low tolerance for slow starts. Erik ten Hag, for instance, set a new record for the fastest sacking in Bundesliga history, being relieved of his duties by Bayer Leverkusen after just 62 days. In the Premier League, Nottingham Forest’s Nuno Espírito Santo was sacked despite the team being in 10th place, due to a breakdown in his relationship with the owner.
In stark contrast, no in-season sackings have been recorded in either La Liga or Serie A as of this report . This is not to say these leagues are free from instability; Serie A, for example, underwent a “bench revolution” with a remarkable twelve out of twenty clubs changing managers before the first matchday.
The Manchester United Conundrum: Can Ruben Amorim Survive?
The pressure on Ruben Amorim at Manchester United is immense, and he currently stands as a strong favourite in the managerial sack race. The situation is a paradox, with a stark disconnect between on-field results and underlying data. The team’s performance is, by traditional measures, disastrous, with their worst start to a Premier League season in 33 years, languishing in 14th place. Since his appointment last November, the team has accumulated just 31 points from 31 league matches, the worst record of any ever-present Premier League team in that period.
However, the club’s hierarchy reportedly retains its backing for Amorim because the underlying data tells a story of significant improvement.
Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United Performance: A Statistical Paradox
| Metric | Value | Context/Comparison |
| Premier League Position | 14th | The team’s worst start in 33 years |
| Points since Amorim’s arrival | 31 points from 31 games | The worst record of any ever-present Premier League team |
| Total Shots | 1st in the Premier League | Significant improvement from the previous season |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2nd in the Premier League | An indicator of high-quality scoring opportunities |
| Shot Conversion Rate | 5.7% | Highlights a profound failure of execution despite creating chances |
This statistical paradox suggests that Amorim’s struggles are rooted in a failure of execution rather than a failure of creation. The team is generating an abundance of chances, but their inability to convert them is reflected in a poor shot conversion rate. A crucial factor is that the club’s new £207 million strike force has not yet started a game together due to various issues.
A major point of public criticism is Amorim’s unwavering commitment to his 3-4-3 system. The coach has repeatedly stated in public that he will not change his philosophy. This philosophical inflexibility is both a strength, providing a clear identity, and a weakness, as it has reportedly led to some players “losing faith” in the system.
Will He Last? Can the Team Improve?
Amorim’s position is precarious but not yet terminal. He has the backing of the club’s leadership, who are choosing to believe the positive underlying data over the damning results. However, public pressure is escalating, with some pundits stating he could be sacked “before Christmas” if things do not turn around. The next three games against Chelsea, Brentford, and Sunderland are viewed as a critical ultimatum.
The team has the potential to improve, as the underlying data shows the problem is identifiable and solvable. The full integration of the new attacking personnel holds the key to unlocking the team’s full potential. While the outlook is grim in the short term, a sudden improvement is not out of the question once the squad is fully fit and cohesive.
The Final Verdict
Ruben Amorim’s position at Manchester United is a high-stakes conflict between a patient, data-driven plan and the urgent demands for immediate results. He has not joined the list of coaches sacked at the start of the 2025/26 season, as his job security is buffered by the board’s belief that his underlying data points to an eventual turnaround. The data overwhelmingly suggests the team can improve, with problems rooted in a failure of execution that can be solved once the new signings are fully integrated.
